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Assessing the impact of Trump´s tariffs on the region

By: Astrov, Vasily.
Contributor(s): Bykova, Alexandra | Duraković, Selena | Gökten, Meryem | Grieveson, Richard | Hanzl-Weiss, Doris | How, Marcus | Hunya, Gabor | Jovanović, Branimir | Korpar, Niko | Leitner, Sebastian | Mara, Isilda | Pindyuk, Olga | Richter, Sandor | Sošić, Marko | Ströhm, Bernd Christoph | Tverdostup, Marina | Ghodsi, Mahdi | Gutzianas, Ioannis | Kruk, Dzmitry | Reiter, Oliver | Grodzicki, Maciej | Locatelli, Benedetta | Penkova-Pearson, Emilia.
Material type: materialTypeLabelBookSeries: wiiw Forecast Reports: Spring 2025Publisher: Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2025Description: 152 S., 30 Tables and 48 Figures and 4 Boxes, 30cm.ISBN: ISBN 9783852090818.Subject(s): CESEE Central and Eastern Europe | economic forecast | Western Balkans | CIS | Ukraine | Russia | Turkey | EU | business cycle | economic sentiment | euro area | convergence | labour markets | unemployment | Russia-Ukraine war | commodity prices | inflation | price controls | trade disruptions | renewable energy | gas | electricity | monetary policy | fiscal policy | impact on AustriaCountries covered: Albania | Austria | Belarus | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Bulgaria | Central and East Europe | CESEE | CIS | Croatia | Czechia | Estonia | Euro Area | European Union | Hungary | Kazakhstan | Kosovo | Latvia | Lithuania | Moldova | Montenegro | North Macedonia | Poland | Romania | Russia | Serbia | Slovakia | Slovenia | Southeast Europe | Turkey | Ukraine | US | Western Balkanswiiw Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy | International Trade, Competitiveness and FDIClassification: E20 | E21 | E22 | E24 | E32 | E5 | E62 | F21 | F31 | H60 | I18 | J20 | J30 | O47 | O52 | O57 | P24 | P27 | P33 | P52 Online resources: Click here to access online Summary: The global economy is set to suffer from new US tariffs, which will remain above pre-2025 levels and drive trade disruptions, financial volatility, and a downgrade in euro area GDP this year. In CESEE, the tariffs and their spillover effects from the EU, especially Germany, will slow regional growth to 2.6% in 2025. Private consumption and investment continue to support growth, but exports will struggle amid the US-led trade war. Political instability, unresolved conflicts, and ongoing risks from the war in Ukraine—compounded by the potential for an unfavourable settlement or Ukrainian collapse—pose additional threats to CESEE’s economic outlook and regional security.
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Paper WIIW Library 7.715/Spring 2025 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) Spring 2025 Available 1000010007289

The global economy is set to suffer from new US tariffs, which will remain above pre-2025 levels and drive trade disruptions, financial volatility, and a downgrade in euro area GDP this year. In CESEE, the tariffs and their spillover effects from the EU, especially Germany, will slow regional growth to 2.6% in 2025. Private consumption and investment continue to support growth, but exports will struggle amid the US-led trade war. Political instability, unresolved conflicts, and ongoing risks from the war in Ukraine—compounded by the potential for an unfavourable settlement or Ukrainian collapse—pose additional threats to CESEE’s economic outlook and regional security.

The Vienna Instiute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)