Looking Back, Looking Forward: Central and Eastern Europe 30 Years After the Fall of the Berlin Wall
Gligorov, Vladimir
Looking Back, Looking Forward: Central and Eastern Europe 30 Years After the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2019. - 54 S., 2 Tables and 29 Figures, 30cm. - wiiw Essays and Occasional Papers 4 . - wiiw Essays and Occasional Papers 4 .
To mark the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, this paper aims to assess developments in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) over the past three decades, and to look forward to what the next 30 years might bring. First, we measure the convergence of per capita income, wages and life expectancy in CESEE with Western Europe since 1989, and examine demographic trends. We find that, after a difficult start, many countries have become significantly wealthier and their populations much healthier. However, for others, the outcomes of the first 30 years are less positive, and a large number of countries in CESEE have already experienced significant population decline. Second, our experts look back at the situation in 1989, and to what extent their expectations have played out, reflecting on both successes and disappointments. Third, we analyse current trends in the region, and attempt to project what will come next. Here, we focus on automation, digitalisation, institutions, demographics and geopolitics. We find evidence of institutional regression, demographic challenges, and a changing geopolitical backdrop that will have important implications for much of the region. However, we also see reasons for optimism, including the opportunities provided by digitalisation and automation, and an active civil society that could in time force positive change.
CESEE
Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
transition
convergence
demographics
Albania
Belarus
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Central and East Europe
CIS
Croatia
Czechia
Estonia
European Union
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Kosovo
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldova
Montenegro
New EU Member States
North Macedonia
Poland
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Southeast Europe
Turkey
Ukraine
Looking Back, Looking Forward: Central and Eastern Europe 30 Years After the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2019. - 54 S., 2 Tables and 29 Figures, 30cm. - wiiw Essays and Occasional Papers 4 . - wiiw Essays and Occasional Papers 4 .
To mark the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, this paper aims to assess developments in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) over the past three decades, and to look forward to what the next 30 years might bring. First, we measure the convergence of per capita income, wages and life expectancy in CESEE with Western Europe since 1989, and examine demographic trends. We find that, after a difficult start, many countries have become significantly wealthier and their populations much healthier. However, for others, the outcomes of the first 30 years are less positive, and a large number of countries in CESEE have already experienced significant population decline. Second, our experts look back at the situation in 1989, and to what extent their expectations have played out, reflecting on both successes and disappointments. Third, we analyse current trends in the region, and attempt to project what will come next. Here, we focus on automation, digitalisation, institutions, demographics and geopolitics. We find evidence of institutional regression, demographic challenges, and a changing geopolitical backdrop that will have important implications for much of the region. However, we also see reasons for optimism, including the opportunities provided by digitalisation and automation, and an active civil society that could in time force positive change.
CESEE
Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
transition
convergence
demographics
Albania
Belarus
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Central and East Europe
CIS
Croatia
Czechia
Estonia
European Union
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Kosovo
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldova
Montenegro
New EU Member States
North Macedonia
Poland
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Southeast Europe
Turkey
Ukraine