External weakness dampening robust consumer-driven growth
Astrov, Vasily
External weakness dampening robust consumer-driven growth - Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2024. - 158 S., 31 Tables, 57 Figures and 3 Boxes, 30cm. - wiiw Forecast Reports October 2024 . - wiiw Forecast Reports October 2024 .
Economic growth will strengthen in most countries of CESEE in 2025-2026, as lower inflation and interest rates boost real incomes and consumer spending. Investment should also strengthen as interest rates fall, new foreign investment arrives, and EU funds continue to be drawn down. However, the deepening crisis in German industry will continue to weigh on the export-oriented industry of CESEE. The region faces significant downside risks to growth, including a potential victory for Donald Trump in the next US election, and higher energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East.
9783852090801
CESEE Central and Eastern Europe
economic forecast
Western Balkans
CIS
Ukraine
Russia
Turkey
EU
euro area
convergence
business cycle
labour markets
unemployment
Russia-Ukraine war
Russia sanctions
commodity prices
inflation
price controls
trade disruptions
Ukrainian refugees
energy crisis
gas
electricity
monetary policy
fiscal policy
impact on Austria
near-shoring
automotive industry
droughts
Albania
Austria
Belarus
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Central and East Europe
CESEE
CIS
Croatia
Czechia
Estonia
Euro Area
European Union
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Kosovo
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldova
Montenegro
North Macedonia
Poland
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Southeast Europe
Turkey
Ukraine
US
Western Balkans
External weakness dampening robust consumer-driven growth - Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2024. - 158 S., 31 Tables, 57 Figures and 3 Boxes, 30cm. - wiiw Forecast Reports October 2024 . - wiiw Forecast Reports October 2024 .
Economic growth will strengthen in most countries of CESEE in 2025-2026, as lower inflation and interest rates boost real incomes and consumer spending. Investment should also strengthen as interest rates fall, new foreign investment arrives, and EU funds continue to be drawn down. However, the deepening crisis in German industry will continue to weigh on the export-oriented industry of CESEE. The region faces significant downside risks to growth, including a potential victory for Donald Trump in the next US election, and higher energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East.
9783852090801
CESEE Central and Eastern Europe
economic forecast
Western Balkans
CIS
Ukraine
Russia
Turkey
EU
euro area
convergence
business cycle
labour markets
unemployment
Russia-Ukraine war
Russia sanctions
commodity prices
inflation
price controls
trade disruptions
Ukrainian refugees
energy crisis
gas
electricity
monetary policy
fiscal policy
impact on Austria
near-shoring
automotive industry
droughts
Albania
Austria
Belarus
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Central and East Europe
CESEE
CIS
Croatia
Czechia
Estonia
Euro Area
European Union
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Kosovo
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldova
Montenegro
North Macedonia
Poland
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Southeast Europe
Turkey
Ukraine
US
Western Balkans