Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions
By: Stehrer, Robert
.
Contributor(s): Foster-McGregor, Neil.
Material type:
BookSeries: wiiw Working Papers: 36Publisher: Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2005Description: S., 30cm.Subject(s): CEECs | GDP growth | smooth transitions | time series analysisCountries covered: Bulgaria | Visegrad countries | Czechia | Estonia | Hungary | Latvia | Lithuania | New EU Member States | Poland | Romania | Slovakia | Slovenia | Baltic States | SEEwiiw Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy | International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI | Macroeconomic Analysis and PolicyClassification: C22 | O57 Online resources: Click here to access online Summary: This paper employs smooth transition models to investigate the GDP series of ten CEECs. Allowing for a transition in both trend and intercept we examine the response of GDP to reforms in CEECs. Our results indicate that in only a small of number of countries is there evidence to suggest that the impact of the reforms on long-run growth has been positive. In most cases there has been no significant impact of the transition on the trend growth rate. There also appears to be little difference in terms of the depth of recession, speed of adjustment and the impact of reforms on GDP growth depending upon whether a country adopted a gradual or a fast approach to reforms.
| Item type | Current library | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paper | WIIW Library | 5.700/36 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Available | 1000010000535 |
This paper employs smooth transition models to investigate the GDP series of ten CEECs. Allowing for a transition in both trend and intercept we examine the response of GDP to reforms in CEECs. Our results indicate that in only a small of number of countries is there evidence to suggest that the impact of the reforms on long-run growth has been positive. In most cases there has been no significant impact of the transition on the trend growth rate. There also appears to be little difference in terms of the depth of recession, speed of adjustment and the impact of reforms on GDP growth depending upon whether a country adopted a gradual or a fast approach to reforms.
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