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Collateral Imbalances in Intra-European Trade?

By: Nagengast, Arne J.
Contributor(s): Stehrer, Robert.
Material type: materialTypeLabelBookSeries: wiiw Working Papers: 107Publisher: Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2014Description: 41 S., 6 Tables and 9 Figures, 30cm.Subject(s): trade balances | global value chains | vertical specialisation | value added | input-output tablesCountries covered: European Unionwiiw Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy | International Trade, Competitiveness and FDIClassification: F1 | F2 | C67 | R15 Online resources: Click here to access online Summary: Abstract One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between the two measures have so far not been investigated. Here, we propose a novel decomposition of bilateral gross trade balances that accounts for the differences between gross and value added concepts. The bilateral analysis contributes conceptually to the literature on double counting in trade by identifying the trade flow in which value added is actually recorded for the first time in international trade statistics. We apply our decomposition framework to the development of intra-EU-27 trade balances from 1995-2011 and show that a growing share of intra-EU bilateral trade balances is due to demand in countries other than the two direct trading partners.

Abstract



One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between the two measures have so far not been investigated. Here, we propose a novel decomposition of bilateral gross trade balances that accounts for the differences between gross and value added concepts. The bilateral analysis contributes conceptually to the literature on double counting in trade by identifying the trade flow in which value added is actually recorded for the first time in international trade statistics. We apply our decomposition framework to the development of intra-EU-27 trade balances from 1995-2011 and show that a growing share of intra-EU bilateral trade balances is due to demand in countries other than the two direct trading partners.

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The Vienna Instiute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)

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