Does Trade Drive Global Growth?

By: Podkaminer, Leon.

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BookSeries: wiiw Research Reports: 386Publisher: Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2013Description: 19 S., 4 Tables and 6 Figures, 30cm.Subject(s): world income | world trade | growth | globalization | VEC | Granger causalityCountries covered: non specificwiiw Research Areas: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI | Macroeconomic Analysis and PolicyClassification: F43 | F15 | O41 | O49 Online resources: Click here to access online Summary: Conventional econometric analysis using VEC suggests that there is a long-term relationship between nominal world GDP and nominal world exports. The analysis cannot say anything about the causal relationships between the levels of GDP and exports. But it says a lot about the rules governing the short-term adjustments in GDP and exports. When considering such short-term adjustments, GDP plays the first fiddle. Short-term GDP changes have driven short-term changes in world exports, at least over the years 1987-2008. But the short-term changes in world exports did not ‘cause’ positive short-term changes in GDP.

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Item type	Current library	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode
Paper	WIIW Library	5.600/386 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Available		1000010002907

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Conventional econometric analysis using VEC suggests that there is a long-term relationship between nominal world GDP and nominal world exports. The analysis cannot say anything about the causal relationships between the levels of GDP and exports. But it says a lot about the rules governing the short-term adjustments in GDP and exports. When considering such short-term adjustments, GDP plays the first fiddle. Short-term GDP changes have driven short-term changes in world exports, at least over the years 1987-2008. But the short-term changes in world exports did not ‘cause’ positive short-term changes in GDP.

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