Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
By: Astrov, Vasily.
Contributor(s): Bykova, Alexandra | Dobrinsky, Rumen | Duraković, Selena | Grieveson, Richard | Hanzl-Weiss, Doris | Hunya, Gabor
| Jovanović, Branimir | Kochnev, Artem | Korpar, Niko | Leitner, Sebastian | Mara, Isilda | Moshammer, Bernhard | Pindyuk, Olga | Richter, Sandor | Ströhm, Bernd Christoph | Tverdostup, Maryna | Vujanović, Nina | Zavarská, Zuzana | Żurawski, Adam.
Material type: 
BookSeries: wiiw Forecast Reports: Spring 2022Publisher: Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2022Description: 151 S., 32 Tables, and 46 Figures, 30cm.ISBN: 9783852090757.Subject(s): CESEE | economic forecast | Central and Eastern Europe | Western Balkans | EU | euro area | CIS | Ukraine | Turkey | convergence | business cycle | coronavirus | labour markets | unemployment | Russia-Ukraine war | Russia sanctions | commodity prices | price controls | trade disruptions | Ukrainian refugees | energy embargo | monetary policy | fiscal policy | impact on AustriaCountries covered: Albania | Belarus | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Bulgaria | Central and East Europe | CESEE | CIS | Croatia | Czechia | Estonia | Euro Area | European Union | Hungary | Kazakhstan | Kosovo | Latvia | Lithuania | Moldova | Montenegro | North Macedonia | Poland | Romania | Russia | Serbia | Slovakia | Slovenia | Southeast Europe | Turkey | Ukraine | US | Western Balkans | Austriawiiw Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy | International Trade, Competitiveness and FDIClassification: E20 | E21 | E22 | E24 | E32 | E5 | E62 | F21 | F31 | H60 | I18 | J20 | J30 | O47 | O52 | O57 | P24 | P27 | P33 | P52 Online resources: Click here to access online Summary: Our Spring 2022 Forecast comes at a time of pronounced global uncertainty, arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and wide-ranging Western sanctions on Russia. To take account of this, we distinguish between two extreme scenarios. In the baseline scenario, which assumes no further major Western sanctions and some kind of a ceasefire by the middle of 2022, recessions this year will be confined to Ukraine and the bulk of the CIS; elsewhere in CESEE, growth forecasts have been revised downwards by 1-2 percentage points compared to Winter. However, in the adverse scenario, which assumes a further war escalation and an immediate EU embargo on Russian energy, half of the CESEE region will slide into recession, while inflation will soar into the double-digit range nearly everywhere.
| Item type | Current library | Call number | Vol info | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paper | WIIW Library | 7.715/Spring 2022 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Spring 2022 | Available | 1000010006138 |
Our Spring 2022 Forecast comes at a time of pronounced global uncertainty, arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and wide-ranging Western sanctions on Russia. To take account of this, we distinguish between two extreme scenarios. In the baseline scenario, which assumes no further major Western sanctions and some kind of a ceasefire by the middle of 2022, recessions this year will be confined to Ukraine and the bulk of the CIS; elsewhere in CESEE, growth forecasts have been revised downwards by 1-2 percentage points compared to Winter. However, in the adverse scenario, which assumes a further war escalation and an immediate EU embargo on Russian energy, half of the CESEE region will slide into recession, while inflation will soar into the double-digit range nearly everywhere.
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