Beneath the Veneer of Calm
By: Astrov, Vasily.
Contributor(s): Bykova, Alexandra | Dobrinsky, Rumen | Duraković, Selena | Gökten, Meryem | Grieveson, Richard | Hanzl-Weiss, Doris | Hunya, Gabor | Jovanović, Branimir | Korpar, Niko | Leitner, Sebastian | Pindyuk, Olga | Richter, Sandor | Ströhm, Bernd Christoph | Tverdostup, Maryna | Zavarská, Zuzana | Żurawski, Adam | How, Marcus | Mara, Isilda.
Material type: BookSeries: wiiw Forecast Reports: Autumn 2023Publisher: Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2023Description: 156 S., 30 Tables and 52 Figures, 30cm.ISBN: 9783852090788.Subject(s): CESEE | Central and Eastern Europe | economic forecast | Western Balkans | Visegrád group | CIS | Ukraine | Russia | Turkey | euro area | EU | convergence | Russia-Ukraine war | Russia sanctions | commodity prices | inflation | energy crisis | gas | renewable energy | electricity | monetary and fiscal policy | EU funds | purchasing power | poverty | real wages | remittances | FDI | imports | external debt | interest rates | banking sector | credit | impact on Austria | macroeconomic forecastingCountries covered: Albania | Austria | Belarus | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Bulgaria | Central and East Europe | CESEE | CIS | Croatia | Czechia | Estonia | Euro Area | European Union | Hungary | Kazakhstan | Kosovo | Latvia | Lithuania | Moldova | Montenegro | North Macedonia | Poland | Romania | Russia | Serbia | Slovakia | Slovenia | Southeast Europe | Turkey | Ukraine | US | Western Balkanswiiw Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy | International Trade, Competitiveness and FDIClassification: E20 | E21 | E22 | E24 | E32 | E5 | E62 | F21 | F31 | H60 | I18 | J20 | J30 | O47 | O52 | O57 | P24 | P27 | P33 | P52 Online resources: Click here to access online Summary: The economy of the CESEE region continues to outperform the EU average, but there are notable differences between the various sub-regions. The EU-CEE countries performed worse than expected, due to the recession in Germany, while the Western Balkan countries performed better than expected, thanks to tourism, remittances and FDI. And the CIS countries and Ukraine also did better than anticipated, as they adapted to the new reality. Inflation is proving far more persistent than previously imagined; it is driven not just by global energy prices, but also by company profits, price rises in other sectors and, most recently, higher wages. The price increases are having a serious adverse effect on people’s living standards and poverty, and some indicators have worsened dramatically. Growth in 2024 and 2025 will be lower than previously expected, on account of the global slowdown, the weak EU economy, the more persistent inflation, the tighter monetary conditions and less-supportive fiscal policy. Inflation will also be higher and will not return to 2% any time soon, as its dynamics have become far more complex and are no longer driven just by higher global energy.Item type | Current library | Call number | Vol info | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paper | WIIW Library | 7.715/Autumn 2023 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Autumn 2023 | Available | 1000010006645 |
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7.715/Autumn 2020 No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large | 7.715/Autumn 2021 Recovery Beating Expectations | 7.715/Autumn 2022 Bracing for the Winter | 7.715/Autumn 2023 Beneath the Veneer of Calm | 7.715/Spring 2014 Investment to the Rescue | 7.715/Spring 2015 A Time of Moderate Expectations | 7.715/Spring 2016 Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession |
The economy of the CESEE region continues to outperform the EU average, but there are notable differences between the various sub-regions. The EU-CEE countries performed worse than expected, due to the recession in Germany, while the Western Balkan countries performed better than expected, thanks to tourism, remittances and FDI. And the CIS countries and Ukraine also did better than anticipated, as they adapted to the new reality. Inflation is proving far more persistent than previously imagined; it is driven not just by global energy prices, but also by company profits, price rises in other sectors and, most recently, higher wages. The price increases are having a serious adverse effect on people’s living standards and poverty, and some indicators have worsened dramatically. Growth in 2024 and 2025 will be lower than previously expected, on account of the global slowdown, the weak EU economy, the more persistent inflation, the tighter monetary conditions and less-supportive fiscal policy. Inflation will also be higher and will not return to 2% any time soon, as its dynamics have become far more complex and are no longer driven just by higher global energy.