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The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery

By: Astrov, Vasily.
Contributor(s): Bykova, Alexandra | Dobrinsky, Rumen | Duraković, Selena | Gökten, Meryem | Grieveson, Richard | Hanzl-Weiss, Doris | How, Marcus | Hunya, Gabor | Jovanović, Branimir | Korpar, Niko | Leitner, Sebastian | Mara, Isilda | Pindyuk, Olga | Richter, Sandor | Sošić, Marko | Ströhm, Bernd Christoph | Tverdostup, Maryna | Zavarská, Zuzana | Żurawski, Adam.
Material type: materialTypeLabelBookSeries: wiiw Forecast Reports: Spring 2024Publisher: Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2024Description: 156 S., 29 Tables and 50 Figures, 30cm.ISBN: 9783852090795.Subject(s): CESEE Central and Eastern Europe | economic forecast | Western Balkans | CIS | Ukraine | Russia | Turkey | EU | business cycle | economic sentiment | euro area | convergence | labour markets | unemployment | Russia-Ukraine war | commodity prices | inflation | price controls | trade disruptions | renewable energy | gas | electricity | monetary policy | fiscal policy | impact on AustriaCountries covered: Albania | Austria | Belarus | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Bulgaria | Central and East Europe | CESEE | CIS | Croatia | Czechia | Estonia | Euro Area | European Union | Hungary | Kazakhstan | Kosovo | Latvia | Lithuania | Moldova | Montenegro | North Macedonia | Poland | Romania | Russia | Serbia | Slovakia | Slovenia | Southeast Europe | Turkey | Ukraine | US | Western Balkanswiiw Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy | International Trade, Competitiveness and FDIClassification: E20 | E21 | E22 | E24 | E27 | E31 | E32 | E5 | E62 | F21 | F31 | F51 | H56 | H60 | J20 | J30 | O47 | O52 | O57 | Q42 Online resources: Click here to access online Summary: Economic growth will strengthen in most countries of CESEE in 2024, as falling inflation boosts real incomes and consumer spending. The outlook for investment is more mixed, while the external sector in CESEE is still waiting for a recovery in German industry. Although the medium-term outlook is reasonably positive, CESEE faces significant downside risks to growth, including a potential victory for Donald Trump in the next US election, higher energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East, a delayed German recovery, and financial instability caused by high real interest rates.

Economic growth will strengthen in most countries of CESEE in 2024, as falling inflation boosts real incomes and consumer spending. The outlook for investment is more mixed, while the external sector in CESEE is still waiting for a recovery in German industry. Although the medium-term outlook is reasonably positive, CESEE faces significant downside risks to growth, including a potential victory for Donald Trump in the next US election, higher energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East, a delayed German recovery, and financial instability caused by high real interest rates.

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The Vienna Instiute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)

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