02923nam a22003377u 4500 pwiiw4912 OSt 20260516120038.0 190612t2019 au ||||| |||| 00| ||eng d OSt eng F22 J01 J08 J11 J21 J23 J61 jelc Grieveson, Richard EU Faces a Tough Demographic Reckoning Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2019. 17 S., 3 Tables and 9 Figures, 30cm. wiiw Policy Notes and Reports 30 By 2030, labour demand could be equal to labour supply in most of the EU, creating significant challenges for policy-makers and firms. The ‘tipping point’ at which labour demand will become equal to labour supply in the EU – that is, when labour will become a constraint on economic growth – is now imminent. If current trends continue, most EU countries will hit this ‘tipping point’ during the next decade, many by 2025. Vacancy rates and surveys of employers find that firms in some sectors are already facing severe labour constraints on production. Most of CEE will be hit first, not least because they are still losing so many workers to Western Europe. For Western Europe, however, the situation will also become difficult soon, especially for Germany. This is an enormous challenge for policy-makers, and will become even more so in the future. Policy options to counter demographic trends can be split into four main areas: higher productivity, immigration, activity rates, or fertility. However, none is a silver bullet. Even if all of these policies are pursued successfully and in combination, they are unlikely to fundamentally alter the picture. The implications of this demographic decline do not have to be all negative. Combined with intelligent upgrading of infrastructure and investment in productivity-enhancing improvements in industry, there is no reason that these population trends cannot go hand-in-hand with increases in per capita GDP and living standards. Much can be learned from Japan in this regard.   The politics of the future in the EU is likely to be defined by generational questions, and potentially inter-generational conflict. Policy discussions are likely to centre ever more on immigration, how to fund old-age and child care, how to extend working lives, automation, and the problematic issue of financial incentives to increase fertility rates. demographics migration emigration immigration automation European Union Labour, Migration and Income Distribution Leitner, Sandra M. Stehrer, Robert 5 30 WIIW0000092 wiiw Policy Notes and Reports https://wiiw.ac.at/p-4912.html P 8802 8802 0 0 0 0 BIB BIB 1 2019-06-12 pwiiw4912 0 30 1000010004912 2019-06-12 00:00:00 2019-06-12 P