03414nam a22007457u 4500 pwiiw5059 OSt 20260516120057.0 191107t2019 au ||||| |||| 00| ||eng d OSt eng E00 E02 F02 J11 P20 P30 O52 jelc Gligorov, Vladimir Looking Back, Looking Forward: Central and Eastern Europe 30 Years After the Fall of the Berlin Wall Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2019. 54 S., 2 Tables and 29 Figures, 30cm. wiiw Essays and Occasional Papers 4 To mark the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, this paper aims to assess developments in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) over the past three decades, and to look forward to what the next 30 years might bring. First, we measure the convergence of per capita income, wages and life expectancy in CESEE with Western Europe since 1989, and examine demographic trends. We find that, after a difficult start, many countries have become significantly wealthier and their populations much healthier. However, for others, the outcomes of the first 30 years are less positive, and a large number of countries in CESEE have already experienced significant population decline. Second, our experts look back at the situation in 1989, and to what extent their expectations have played out, reflecting on both successes and disappointments. Third, we analyse current trends in the region, and attempt to project what will come next. Here, we focus on automation, digitalisation, institutions, demographics and geopolitics. We find evidence of institutional regression, demographic challenges, and a changing geopolitical backdrop that will have important implications for much of the region. However, we also see reasons for optimism, including the opportunities provided by digitalisation and automation, and an active civil society that could in time force positive change. CESEE Europe Central and Eastern Europe transition convergence demographics Albania Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Central and East Europe CIS Croatia Czechia Estonia European Union Hungary Kazakhstan Kosovo Latvia Lithuania Moldova Montenegro New EU Member States North Macedonia Poland Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Southeast Europe Turkey Ukraine Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI Grieveson, Richard Havlik, Peter 4 Hunya, Gabor 6 Pindyuk, Olga Podkaminer, Leon Richter, Sandor Vidovic, Hermine 4 WIIW0000122 wiiw Essays and Occasional Papers https://wiiw.ac.at/p-5059.html P 8857 8857 0 0 0 0 BIB BIB 1 2019-11-07 pwiiw5059 0 1000010005059 2019-11-07 00:00:00 2019-11-07 P