TY  - BOOK
AU  - Pindyuk,Olga
TI  - Structural shifts in Ukraine’s foreign trade and investment and implications for EU-Ukraine relations
T2  - wiiw Policy Notes and Reports
PY  - 2026///
CY  - Wien
PB  - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw)
KW  - Ukraine
KW  - the EU
KW  - China
KW  - the US
KW  - foreign trade
KW  - FDI
KW  - renewable energy
KW  - critical minerals
KW  - agriculture
KW  - competitiveness
KW  - security
KW  - DCFTA
KW  - CAP
KW  - European Union
KW  - US
N2  - Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has triggered profound structural changes in the country’s economy, reshaping patterns of foreign trade, foreign direct investment and sectoral specialisation. This paper analyses the shifts in Ukraine’s trade and investment structures over the past three years and assesses their implications for Ukraine’s future competitiveness and for EU-Ukraine economic relations, with particular attention to the EU’s strategic autonomy in an increasingly fragmented global economy. The analysis shows a rapid reorientation of Ukraine’s merchandise exports towards the EU, driven by emergency trade liberalisation and alternative logistics routes, alongside a marked decline in exports to China. At the same time, Ukraine’s dependence on Chinese imports has intensified, especially for machinery and high-tech inputs critical to defence production, creating new security vulnerabilities. Agriculture has emerged as the most resilient export sector, while metallurgy and manufacturing have suffered lasting losses. Ukraine’s FDI inflows remain notably weak compared with regional peers, with limited progress in attracting investment into high-value and strategic sectors. The paper further examines Ukraine’s role in critical raw materials, renewable energy, agriculture and drone production, highlighting missed opportunities and emerging risks for the EU. It concludes that without faster, more co-ordinated EU engagement – particularly in critical minerals, green energy, defence-industrial integration and investment de-risking – the EU risks losing strategic influence in Ukraine and undermining its own long-term economic and security objectives

UR  - https://wiiw.ac.at/p-7522.html
ER  -