02817nam a22004097u 4500001001000000003000400010005001700014008004100031040000800072041000800080084003900088100002400127245009700151260008600248300004500334490003100379520159900410650000902009650002302018650002202041650002202063650001902085650002302104650003002127650001902157650001402176650002202190651001902212651001202231651000902243700001802252700002002270700001902290700001902309830004402328856003502372pwiiw7526OSt20260516120019.0260220t2026    au ||||| |||| 00| ||eng d  cOSt  aeng  aF13aF15aF51aQ41aQ48aO532jelc1 aFelbermayr, Gabriel10aEconomic implications for Europe of a potential reintegration of Iran into the world economy  aWien :bWiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw),c2026.  a72 S., b7 Tables and 20 Figures,c30cm.1 awiiw Research Reportsv481  aHow would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rules-based economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic effects of such a transformation. It neither advocates for nor legitimises the lifting or easing of sanctions under the current regime or without far-reaching and credible reforms that fully address the concerns underlying the sanctions currently in place.

Using the newest available data and quantitative methods, the results indicate that lifting EU sanctions alone could raise Iran’s real GDP by more than 80% in the long run while generating moderate but economically meaningful gains for Germany and the EU of around 0.3-0.4% of GDP. These gains are driven by expanded trade, lower energy and input prices, and improved allocative efficiency. When sanctions removal is combined with plausible scenarios of productivity catch-up with Turkey or South Korea, Iran’s GDP would increase by 240-388% and the gains for Europe would increase further, underscoring the strong complementarity between trade integration and productivity growth. Moreover, Iran’s reintegration would reduce energy price volatility, improve the security of maritime trade routes, and lower migration pressures.

Overall, the findings suggest that a negotiated transition and rules-based reintegration of Iran would generate substantial mutual economic benefits while contributing to regional and global stability.
  aIran  aeconomic sanctions  aregime transition  atrade integration  aenergy markets  aoil and gas prices  aforeign direct investment  aEuropean Union  ainflation  apolitical economy  aEuropean Union  aGermany  aIran1 aGhodsi, Mahdi1 aStehrer, Robert1 aYotov, Yoto V.1 aKariem, Heider 0v481wWIIW0000048twiiw Research Reports40uhttps://wiiw.ac.at/p-7526.html