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008			080501t2008 au ||||| |||||||| ||ger d
040			_cOSt
041			_ager
084			_aP2 _aO57 _aE17 _aO4 _2jelc
100	1		_aAstrov, Vasily
245	1	0	_aMOEL: Wachstumsvorsprung gegenüber Westeuropa bleibt erhalten
260			_aWien : _bWiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), _c2008.
300			_a16 S., _b8 Tables and 3 Figures, _c30cm.
490	1		_awiiw Research Reports in German Language _v2008-05
520			_aZusammenfassung Die MOEL verzeichneten 2007 erneut ein kräftiges Wirtschaftswachstum. In den neuen EU-Ländern in Mitteleuropa, deren Expansion primär durch die Re-Industrialisierung geprägt ist, war ein Anstieg der Beschäftigung zu beobachten. In den anderen MOEL wurde die Entwicklung jedoch vor allem vom Dienstleistungssektor getragen und basierte nach wie vor teilweise auf der Ausweitung der Kreditvergabe der Banken, die allerdings in mehreren Ländern etwas gebremst wurde. Die Folgen der weltweiten Finanzmarktturbulenzen und eine Wachstumsverlangsamung in Westeuropa dürften die Konjunkturaussichten der MOEL nur unwesentlich dämpfen; der latente Arbeitskräftemangel und anhaltender Inflationsdruck aufgrund der Verteuerung von Energie und Agrarprodukten auf dem Weltmarkt könnten sich jedoch mittelfristig als Wachstumshemmnis erweisen. English Summary CEEC Growth Still Overtakes Western Europe - Summary Economic growth in Central and East European countries (CEECs) in 2007 was driven primarily by strong domestic demand, especially for consumer goods. The latter resulted from both higher incomes (particularly in Central Europe's new EU countries) and expanding household credit (elsewhere), although the pace of credit expansion has slowed down somewhat, not least due to government efforts to avoid excessive 'overheating'. Another distinction between these two country groups has been in the sectoral patterns of growth: the main growth engine was industry in the Central European new EU countries and the services sector elsewhere. The higher world prices for food and energy and further tightening of domestic labour markets led to mounting inflationary pressures. The latter proved to be particularly strong in the poorer CEECs, but was mitigated by an ongoing currency appreciation in Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. The recent surge in inflation is unwelcome news for the new EU countries aiming to join the European Monetary Union soon (especially the Baltic states, but in the longer term also Bulgaria and Romania); only Slovakia has a realistic chance to join the euro zone already at the beginning of 2009 as aspired to by the country's government. At the same time, higher inflation and further budget consolidation have improved the fiscal performance of several new EU countries; the latter is no longer a formal obstacle to adopting the euro (with the exception of Hungary). In contrast, fiscal policy in Russia and Ukraine has been somewhat loosened. Russia's sovereign oil fund, which has been booming recently thanks to soaring world crude prices, is being increasingly spent on industrial policy, aimed at diversifying the country's economic structure away from energy. The current turbulence in the global financial markets and a slowdown in Western Europe should dampen the CEECs' growth prospects in 2008 only marginally. The speed of their real convergence to the EU 15 will most probably stay at around 3.5 percentage points on average. Hungary's economic growth should even pick up slightly, as consumer demand will gradually recover from the adverse effects of last year's budget consolidation. At the same time, in Latvia and Estonia, 'hard landing' following a protracted period of demand overheating appears inevitable. The prospects of EU accession for a number of Southeast European countries have recently improved and should contribute to the region's overall stability and economic development. However, Serbia might suffer from the recent 'Kosovo crisis' and the potentially destabilizing consequences of the recent fiscal loosening ahead of the parliamentary elections in May 2008, whereas Turkey remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the world financial markets.
650			_atransitional economies
650			_acomparative study
650			_aeconomic growth
650			_afiscal and monetary policy
650			_amacroeconomic forecast
650			_amacroeconomic analysis
651			_aAlbania
651			_aBosnia and Herzegovina
651			_aBulgaria
651			_aCroatia
651			_aCzechia
651			_aEstonia
651			_aHungary
651			_aKazakhstan
651			_aLatvia
651			_aLithuania
651			_aNorth Macedonia
651			_aMontenegro
651			_aPoland
651			_aRomania
651			_aRussia
651			_aSerbia
651			_aSlovakia
651			_aSlovenia
651			_aTurkey
651			_aUkraine
651			_aBaltic States
651			_aSEE
651			_aVisegrad countries
690			_aMacroeconomic Analysis and Policy
690			_aInternational Trade, Competitiveness and FDI
690			_aInternational Trade, Competitiveness and FDI
690			_aLabour, Migration and Income Distribution
690			_aMacroeconomic Analysis and Policy
830		0	_v2008-05 _wWIIW0000108 _twiiw Research Reports in German Language
856	4	0	_uhttps://wiiw.ac.at/p-186.html
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