000			04564nam a22005897u 4500
001			pwiiw0185
003			OSt
005			20260518120055.0
008			070501t2007 au ||||| |||||||| ||ger d
040			_cOSt
041			_ager
084			_aP2 _aO57 _aE17 _2jelc
100	1		_aAstrov, Vasily
245	1	0	_aWirtschaftswachstum in den MOEL zunehmend durch heimische Nachfrage getragen
260			_aWien : _bWiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), _c2007.
300			_a S., _b _c30cm.
490	1		_awiiw Research Reports in German Language _v2007-05
520			_aZusammenfassung: Die Konjunkturbelebung in der EU 15 trug 2006 zu einer Beschleunigung des Wirtschaftswachstums in den MOEL bei. Während in den neuen EU-Ländern in Mitteleuropa der Außenhandel kräftig wuchs und eine weitere Aufwertung bewirkte, geht die Dynamik in den meisten anderen MOEL vor allem auf die hohe Verschuldungsbereitschaft der privaten Haushalte zurück. Die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt entspannte sich in den neuen EU-Ländern weiter, der Strukturwandel ist dort weitgehend abgeschlossen. In den Westbalkanländern verschlechterte sich die Situation jedoch zum Teil sogar. Die Performance der russischen Wirtschaft hat sich von der Entwicklung der Weltmarktpreise für Energie weitgehend entkoppelt; in der Ukraine schwankt das Wachstum dagegen erheblich und nicht zuletzt durch politische Faktoren bedingt. English Summary Economic Growth in the CEECs Increasingly Propelled by Local Demand The economic recovery in the EU 15 in 2006 resulted in an acceleration of growth in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), particularly in the new EU member states of Central Europe. Helped by the recent massive inflows of FDI, these countries have become serious competitors on the European markets, particularly those of manufactured goods. The continuous nominal currency appreciations in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia reflect their gains in international competitiveness and will not affect their economic growth. In contrast, the contribution of foreign trade to growth was decidedly negative in most other CEECs, including the Baltics and the new EU members in Southeast Europe. Their growth rates - quite high in some instances - were first of all due to a boom in private consumption, largely financed by external borrowing facilitated by the dominance of foreign-owned banks. In some cases, the credit boom is about to overheat and produce 'bubbles', especially in real estate. However, the available policy options are limited: while monetary policy is constrained by fixed exchange rate regimes, fiscal policy is already quite restrictive in general. In the new EU member states, the labour market situation is continuing to improve given that their industrial restructuring is nearing completion, and not least due to the sizeable outward migration flows. In the West Balkan countries, on the other hand, unemployment rates are generally high and rising. Their recent progress towards EU integration has been generally modest, even though greater political stability and growing foreign trade both support their economic recovery. With the exception of Hungary (where large-scale efforts at fiscal consolidation have induced a noticeable economic slowdown), short- and medium-term economic prospects for the CEECs are positive, whereas growth in Serbia and Ukraine remains relatively vulnerable to political risks.
650			_atransitional economies
650			_acomparative study
650			_amacroeconomic forecast
650			_amacroeconomic analysis
651			_aAlbania
651			_aBosnia and Herzegovina
651			_aBulgaria
651			_aCroatia
651			_aCzechia
651			_aEstonia
651			_aHungary
651			_aLatvia
651			_aLithuania
651			_aNorth Macedonia
651			_aMontenegro
651			_aPoland
651			_aRomania
651			_aRussia
651			_aSerbia
651			_aSlovakia
651			_aSlovenia
651			_aUkraine
651			_aBaltic States
651			_aSEE
651			_aVisegrad countries
690			_aMacroeconomic Analysis and Policy
690			_aInternational Trade, Competitiveness and FDI
690			_aInternational Trade, Competitiveness and FDI
690			_aLabour, Migration and Income Distribution
690			_aMacroeconomic Analysis and Policy
830		0	_v2007-05 _wWIIW0000108 _twiiw Research Reports in German Language
856	4	0	_uhttps://wiiw.ac.at/p-185.html
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999			_c8588 _d8588