000			03010nam a22004577u 4500
001			pwiiw7522
003			OSt
005			20260517120214.0
008			260219t2026 au ||||| |||| 00| ||eng d
040			_cOSt
041			_aeng
084			_aF10 _aF21 _aF50 _aF52 _aF55 _aO50 _aQ17 _aQ34 _2jelc
100	1		_aPindyuk, Olga
245	1	0	_aStructural shifts in Ukraine’s foreign trade and investment and implications for EU-Ukraine relations
260			_aWien : _bWiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), _c2026.
300			_a30 S., _b13 Figures, _c30cm.
490	1		_awiiw Policy Notes and Reports _v103
520			_aRussia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has triggered profound structural changes in the country’s economy, reshaping patterns of foreign trade, foreign direct investment and sectoral specialisation. This paper analyses the shifts in Ukraine’s trade and investment structures over the past three years and assesses their implications for Ukraine’s future competitiveness and for EU-Ukraine economic relations, with particular attention to the EU’s strategic autonomy in an increasingly fragmented global economy. The analysis shows a rapid reorientation of Ukraine’s merchandise exports towards the EU, driven by emergency trade liberalisation and alternative logistics routes, alongside a marked decline in exports to China. At the same time, Ukraine’s dependence on Chinese imports has intensified, especially for machinery and high-tech inputs critical to defence production, creating new security vulnerabilities. Agriculture has emerged as the most resilient export sector, while metallurgy and manufacturing have suffered lasting losses. Ukraine’s FDI inflows remain notably weak compared with regional peers, with limited progress in attracting investment into high-value and strategic sectors. The paper further examines Ukraine’s role in critical raw materials, renewable energy, agriculture and drone production, highlighting missed opportunities and emerging risks for the EU. It concludes that without faster, more co-ordinated EU engagement – particularly in critical minerals, green energy, defence-industrial integration and investment de-risking – the EU risks losing strategic influence in Ukraine and undermining its own long-term economic and security objectives.
650			_aUkraine
650			_athe EU
650			_aChina
650			_athe US
650			_aforeign trade
650			_aFDI
650			_arenewable energy
650			_acritical minerals
650			_aagriculture
650			_acompetitiveness
650			_asecurity
650			_aDCFTA
650			_aCAP
651			_aUkraine
651			_aChina
651			_aEuropean Union
651			_aUS
690			_aInternational Trade, Competitiveness and FDI
690			_aSectoral studies
830		0	_v103 _wWIIW0000092 _twiiw Policy Notes and Reports
856	4	0	_uhttps://wiiw.ac.at/p-7522.html
942			_cP
999			_c9156 _d9156