000			02925nam a22004457u 4500
001			pwiiw7526
003			OSt
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008			260220t2026 au ||||| |||| 00| ||eng d
040			_cOSt
041			_aeng
084			_aF13 _aF15 _aF51 _aQ41 _aQ48 _aO53 _2jelc
100	1		_aFelbermayr, Gabriel
245	1	0	_aEconomic implications for Europe of a potential reintegration of Iran into the world economy
260			_aWien : _bWiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), _c2026.
300			_a72 S., _b7 Tables and 20 Figures, _c30cm.
490	1		_awiiw Research Reports _v481
520			_aHow would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rules-based economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic effects of such a transformation. It neither advocates for nor legitimises the lifting or easing of sanctions under the current regime or without far-reaching and credible reforms that fully address the concerns underlying the sanctions currently in place. Using the newest available data and quantitative methods, the results indicate that lifting EU sanctions alone could raise Iran’s real GDP by more than 80% in the long run while generating moderate but economically meaningful gains for Germany and the EU of around 0.3-0.4% of GDP. These gains are driven by expanded trade, lower energy and input prices, and improved allocative efficiency. When sanctions removal is combined with plausible scenarios of productivity catch-up with Turkey or South Korea, Iran’s GDP would increase by 240-388% and the gains for Europe would increase further, underscoring the strong complementarity between trade integration and productivity growth. Moreover, Iran’s reintegration would reduce energy price volatility, improve the security of maritime trade routes, and lower migration pressures. Overall, the findings suggest that a negotiated transition and rules-based reintegration of Iran would generate substantial mutual economic benefits while contributing to regional and global stability.
650			_aIran
650			_aeconomic sanctions
650			_aregime transition
650			_atrade integration
650			_aenergy markets
650			_aoil and gas prices
650			_aforeign direct investment
650			_aEuropean Union
650			_ainflation
650			_apolitical economy
651			_aEuropean Union
651			_aGermany
651			_aIran
690			_aInternational Trade, Competitiveness and FDI
700	1		_aGhodsi, Mahdi
700	1		_aStehrer, Robert _95
700	1		_aYotov, Yoto V.
700	1		_aKariem, Heider
830		0	_v481 _wWIIW0000048 _twiiw Research Reports
856	4	0	_uhttps://wiiw.ac.at/p-7526.html
942			_cP
999			_c9157 _d9157