External weakness dampening robust consumer-driven growth
By: Astrov, Vasily.
Contributor(s): Bykova, Alexandra | Dobrinsky, Rumen | Gökten, Meryem | Grieveson, Richard | Hanzl-Weiss, Doris | How, Marcus | Hunya, Gabor
| Jovanović, Branimir | Korpar, Niko | Kruk, Dzmitry | Leitner, Sebastian | Mara, Isilda | Pindyuk, Olga | Richter, Sandor | Sošić, Marko | Ströhm, Bernd Christoph | Tverdostup, Marina | Zavarská, Zuzana | Żurawski, Adam.
Material type: 
BookSeries: wiiw Forecast Reports: October 2024Publisher: Wien : Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw), 2024Description: 158 S., 31 Tables, 57 Figures and 3 Boxes, 30cm.ISBN: 9783852090801.Subject(s): CESEE Central and Eastern Europe | economic forecast | Western Balkans | CIS | Ukraine | Russia | Turkey | EU | euro area | convergence | business cycle | labour markets | unemployment | Russia-Ukraine war | Russia sanctions | commodity prices | inflation | price controls | trade disruptions | Ukrainian refugees | energy crisis | gas | electricity | monetary policy | fiscal policy | impact on Austria | near-shoring | automotive industry | droughtsCountries covered: Albania | Austria | Belarus | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Bulgaria | Central and East Europe | CESEE | CIS | Croatia | Czechia | Estonia | Euro Area | European Union | Hungary | Kazakhstan | Kosovo | Latvia | Lithuania | Moldova | Montenegro | North Macedonia | Poland | Romania | Russia | Serbia | Slovakia | Slovenia | Southeast Europe | Turkey | Ukraine | US | Western Balkanswiiw Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy | International Trade, Competitiveness and FDIClassification: E20 | E21 | E22 | E24 | E32 | E5 | E62 | F21 | F31 | H60 | I18 | J20 | J30 | O47 | O52 | O57 | P24 | P27 | P33 | P52 Online resources: Click here to access online Summary: Economic growth will strengthen in most countries of CESEE in 2025-2026, as lower inflation and interest rates boost real incomes and consumer spending. Investment should also strengthen as interest rates fall, new foreign investment arrives, and EU funds continue to be drawn down. However, the deepening crisis in German industry will continue to weigh on the export-oriented industry of CESEE. The region faces significant downside risks to growth, including a potential victory for Donald Trump in the next US election, and higher energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East.
| Cover image | Item type | Current library | Home library | Collection | Shelving location | Call number | Materials specified | Vol info | URL | Copy number | Status | Notes | Date due | Barcode | Item holds | Item hold queue priority | Course reserves | |
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| Paper | WIIW Library | 7.715/October 2024 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | October 2024 | Available | 1000010007026 |
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| 7.715/Autumn 2022 Bracing for the Winter | 7.715/Autumn 2023 Beneath the Veneer of Calm | 7.715/Autumn 2025 Hardening fault lines: CESEE in the age of fragmentation | 7.715/October 2024 External weakness dampening robust consumer-driven growth | 7.715/Spring 2014 Investment to the Rescue | 7.715/Spring 2015 A Time of Moderate Expectations | 7.715/Spring 2016 Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession |
Economic growth will strengthen in most countries of CESEE in 2025-2026, as lower inflation and interest rates boost real incomes and consumer spending. Investment should also strengthen as interest rates fall, new foreign investment arrives, and EU funds continue to be drawn down. However, the deepening crisis in German industry will continue to weigh on the export-oriented industry of CESEE. The region faces significant downside risks to growth, including a potential victory for Donald Trump in the next US election, and higher energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East.
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